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Working with “loose” Theories of Change. ODI Methods Lab Working Paper, March 2016 PDF copy

Evaluating “loose” Theories of Change. A (videoed) presentation to DFID Evaluation Department staff in October 2015

Evaluability Assessments: Reflections on a review of the literature. Davies, R., Payne, L., 2015. Evaluation 21, 216–231. PDF copy

Content Analysis of Most Significant Change (MSC) stories, Rick Davies, December 2013.  Presentation on YouTube. 41 minutes.

Planning Evaluability Assessments: A Synthesis of the Literature with Recommendations. Rick Davies, DFID Working Paper No. 40 August 2013. Available as pdf

Where there is no single Theory of Change: The uses of Decision Tree models, Rick Davies, November 2012.Available as pdf. See a shortened version of this paper on  Evaluation Connections (EES newsletter), June 2013

3ie and the Funding of Impact Evaluations. A Discussion Paper For 3IE’s Members. By Dr Rick Davies, July 2011. 36 pages. Produced for the Office of Development Effectiveness, AusAID.

The Use of Social Network Analysis Tools in the Evaluation of Social Change Communications By Dr Rick Davies, April 2009. 23 pages.

Social Network Analysis as an Evaluation Tool: Experiences with International Development Aid Programmes. 3 page summary paper, for the UK Social Network Conference 13-14 July 2007 Queen Mary College University of London, London, UK.

The 2006 Basic Necessities Survey (BNS) in Can Loc District, Ha Tinh Province, Vietnam A report by the Pro Poor Centre and Rick Davies. A practical application of the BNS method.

Scale, Complexity and the Representation of Theories of Change Part II“. Evaluation, Vol 11(2):133-149, (2005). Sage Publications, London.  (Download Part 2 as pdf – 974 kb) See abstract

The ‘Most Significant Change’ (MSC) Technique: A Guide to Its Use” by Rick Davies and Jess Dart (2005). 104 pages. Hard copies are also available, for UK£ 9.95 (plus postage) on eBay

(unpublished) “Moving from Logical to Network Frameworks: A Modular Matrix Approach to representing and evaluating complex programs“, Rick Davies, July (2005)File is 1.5 MB in size.

Scale, Complexity and the Representation of Theories of Change” Evaluation, Vol 10(1):101-121. (2004) Sage Publications, London.  (Download Part 1 as pdf – 1,023 kb) See  abstract

Network Perspectives on the Evaluation of Development Interventions. Paper for the EDAIS Conference November 24-25,( 2003 ) New Directions in Impact Assessment for Development: Methods and Practice

Dart, J., & Davies, R. (2003). A dialogical, story-based evaluation tool: The most significant change technique. American Journal of Evaluation, 24(2), 137–155. See Evaluation Exchange reference to it here .

Improved Representations Of Change Processes: Improved Theories Of Change” Paper presented at the Seville (2002): 5th Biennial Conference of the European Evaluation Society.

Monitoring and Evaluating NGO Achievements Published in The Companion to Development Studies. Edited by Vandana Desai and Robert B. Potter. Arnold. London. (2002)

A Review of NGO Approaches To The Evaluation Of Advocacy Work (2001) Produced for DFID

Does Empowerment Start At Home? And If So, How Will We Recognise It?” Paper presented at the 4th International Workshop on the Evaluation of Social Development, Oxford, UK 3-7th April, (2000). Published in “Evaluating Empowerment: Reviewing the Concept and Practice“. Ed. Peter Oakley. INTRAC. Oxford, 2001

Order and Diversity: Representing and Assisting Organisational Learning in Non-Government Aid Organisations. Ph.D Thesis. Centre for Development Studies, University of Wales – Swansea (1998)

An Evolutionary Approach to Organisational Learning: An Experiment by an NGO in Bangladesh (Aka Most Significant Changes approach to monitoring) Published in “Development as Process: Concepts and Methods for Working with Complexity” Edited by David Mosse, John Farrington and Alan Rew, Routledge and ODI. London. Also in Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal. September 1998 Vol. 16, No. 3. Pages 243-250

Donor Information Demands and NGO Institutional Development, Journal of International Development. Vol. 9, No. 6, pages 613-620 (1997).

Placing A Value on Advocacy Work Notes prepared for the July 1997 DSA NGO Study Group meeting on “Impact Assessment and Value”, in Oxford.

Beyond Wealth Ranking: The Democratic Definition and Measurement of Poverty A Briefing Note prepared for the ODI Workshop “Indicators of Poverty: Operational Significance”, held in London on Wednesday, 8 October 1997

Guidance Notes on Increasing the Participation of the Poor in the Assessment of the Impact of Development Interventions. A report produced as part of the review of “Methods and Indicators for Measuring the Impact of Poverty Reduction”, an ODA Funded ActionAid Research Project 1997.

Lesson Learning: How Will We Recognise it When We Bump Into it ? Notes prepared for a Group Session in the JFS / BOND Workshop on Lesson Learning, 2-4 July 1997

Interpretations of Sustainability: Self-sufficiency or Inter-dependence Published in ODA Social Development Newsletter, 1996

Hierarchical Card Sorting: A Tool for Qualitative Research & Tree Maps A Tool for Structuring, Exploring and Summarising Qualitative Information

The Management of Diversity in NGO Development Programmes. Presented at the UK Development Studies Association Conference, Dublin, September 1995

Needs Assessment Mission Reports: (a) Southern Somalia March 1991, (b)

Economic Opportunities for the Very Poor: A Report of Research in Belet Weyne and Mogadishu, with Recommendations for Action. A report produced for UNHCR. 155 pages. 1989

The Extension Of Credit To Assist Income Generation: Experiences With Refugee And Non-Refugee Groups In Somalia. 1989

An introduction to Shax: A Somali game (1988)

Mogadishu Nutrition Survey 1988

The Village, the Market, and the Street: A Study of Disadvantaged Areas and Groups in Mogadishu, Somalia 1987 References available on request by email

One Response to “Papers and presentations”


  1. Hi Rickie

    I learnt about your MSC Approach, and without hesistation. I loved it :) So, now, I know exactly what I want to do for my PhD.

    Stay Safe

    Brian Bilal


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